88 Prompts for Long Term Thinking
凯文·凯利 2019 年 1 月为长今基金会（The Long Now Foundation，他后来出任联合主席）写的内部信条，88 条编号短句，一直只在内部流传，2026 年 8 月他决定公开——理由是"对任何想把视角拉长的人都有用"。
它不是长期主义的鸡汤合集，而是一套有内在结构的公理。最锋利的一处是第 9 到 12 条对**长期思考与长期计划**的切割：计划是一种答案，而答案是固定的，在复利式变化中会失效；长远视角是一种问题，而问题是开放的，能在变化中重塑自己的含义。所以他们推崇的是不断重访决策、把解法留给以后，而不是把未来钉死在一张图纸上。
由此长出几条可直接拿来用的判准。**第 13 条**：今天最好的选择，是那些能在未来带来更多选择的选择。**第 20 条**借有限/无限游戏的分野：有限游戏关心怎么结束，无限游戏关心怎么继续。**第 56 条**近乎挑衅：设计一个 90% 的收益在我们都死后才兑现的系统。**第 74 条**则是一句冷静的竞争判断——把视角拉长的最大好处之一，是那里几乎没有对手。
后半段转向时间的不对称与记忆。他指出我们对未来的不确定性惩罚过重、对过去的宽容过多（79、80），而**文明真正的风险不是犯下严重错误，是严重的遗忘**（85）。收尾第 88 条给出全书的尺度：把个人与集体的注意力，从前后几分钟的"短当下"，拓宽到前后各一万年。
凯文·凯利，《连线》杂志共同创办人之一，现挂衔 Senior Maverick。著有《失控》《科技想要什么》《必然》等，近年自出版《消失的亚洲》《亚洲之色》摄影集。个人站 kk.org 下辖 The Technium 博客与 Cool Tools 等多个长期项目，主张"我为了思考而写作"。
In January 2019 I wrote out scores of prompts for thinking long term that I felt should inform the foundation I was later co-chair of, The Long Now Foundation. These axioms were only shared internally, but I feel they would be useful to anyone trying to take a long view so I present them here.
2019年1月，我写下了数十条关于长期思考的提示，我认为它们应当为我后来担任联合主席的 The Long Now Foundation 提供基础。这些公理此前只在内部共享，但我认为它们对任何试图采取长期视角的人都有用，因此在此呈现。
1 Our aim is to improve the present by remembering the future.
1 我们的目标是通过记住未来来改善现在。
2 Our religion is change.
2 我们的宗教是变化。
3 We promote tools and systems that manage the resources of change.
3 我们促进能够管理变化资源的工具和系统。
4 Over time, the process of change itself changes, compounding change.
4 随着时间推移，变化的过程本身也会变化，从而使变化复利叠加。
5 We are making the world safe for continuous compounding change.
5 我们正在使世界对持续的复利式变化变得安全。
6 The system that best manages compounded change is civilization.
6 最能管理复利式变化的系统是文明。
7 We favor tools that operate upon civilization.
7 我们偏好作用于文明的工具。
8 Civilization is long-term thinking; Long-term thinking is civilization.
8 文明是长期思考；长期思考是文明。
9 We promote long-term thinking instead of long-term planning.
9 我们提倡长期思考，而不是长期规划。
10 Plans vs perspective: Long-term planning is a type of answer; because answers are fixed they can become irrelevant during compounding change.
10 计划与视角：长期规划是一种答案；因为答案是固定的，它们可能在复利式变化中变得无关紧要。
11 Long-term perspective is a type of question; because questions are open they can remake their meaning during change.
11 长期视角是一种问题；因为问题是开放的，它们可以在变化中重塑自身意义。
12 Long-term thinking keeps revisiting decisions so that unexpected solutions can be found later.
12 长期思考会不断重新审视决策，以便日后能够找到意想不到的解决方案。
13 The best choices today are those that lead to a greater number of choices in the future.
13 今天最好的选择，是那些能在未来带来更多数量的选择的选择。
14 We seek those possibilities that increase future possibilities for all.
14 我们寻求那些能够为所有人增加未来可能性的可能性。
15 Individually we are better off with expanding possibilities for everyone.
15 作为个体，随着每个人的可能性扩展，我们的境况会更好。
16 Civilization is the process of creating the maximum number of opportunities that work for the maximum number of people.
16 文明是创造最大数量的机会、并使其对最大数量的人有效的过程。
17 To maximize the greatest good means to maximize the longest good, because most of those affected are yet to be born.
17 最大化最大的善意味着最大化最长的善，因为大多数受影响者尚未出生。
18 Tomorrow will arrive without our help; our job is to make tomorrow as big as possible.
18 明天无需我们的帮助也会到来；我们的工作是让明天尽可能大。
19 To fill our tomorrow with so many possibilities that they must be carried over to the day after tomorrow.
19 让我们的明天充满如此多的可能性，以至于这些可能性必须被结转到后天。
20 Finite games focus on how they end; infinite games focus on how they continue.
20 有限游戏关注它们如何结束；无限游戏关注它们如何继续。
21 Where we work there is no winning; there is only improving the game, and keeping it going.
21 在我们工作的地方，没有获胜；只有改进游戏，并让它继续下去。
22 We want to create infinite games, where all who play, win.
22 我们想创造无限游戏，在其中所有参与的人都会赢。
23 We trust the future.
23 我们信任未来。
24 We are trying to equip the future so it can help itself.
24 我们正在努力为未来提供装备，使它能够自助。
25 There is far more future than there is the past; the future is a bigger territory.
25 未来远多于过去；未来是一个更大的领地。
26 Since progress is real, our descendants will have more information and better tools, which will make them more capable of fixing problems we can’t.
26 既然进步是真实的，我们的后代将拥有更多信息和更好工具，这将使他们更有能力解决我们无法解决的问题。
27 The uncertainty of the long-term is a penalty we can pay with technology.
27 长期的不确定性是一种我们可以用技术支付的罚金。
28 Our job is to keep the process of progress going.
28 我们的工作是让进步的过程持续下去。
29 We can leverage the power of longevity to accomplish things brevity can not.
29 我们可以利用长久的力量，完成短暂无法完成的事情。
30 The force of compounding value is one of the most powerful things in the universe.
30 复利价值的力量是宇宙中最强大的事物之一。
31 Long-term processes can create leverage that can produce disproportionate returns.
31 长期过程可以创造杠杆，从而产生不成比例的回报。
32 Even large setbacks and disasters can be overcome by small compounding over long terms.
32 即使是重大挫折和灾难，也可以通过长期的小幅复利来克服。
33 To maximize compounding value the benefits must shift to the future.
33 为了最大化复利价值，收益必须转移到未来。
34 Patience is rewarded. We seek tools and technologies for patience.
34 耐心会得到回报。我们寻求用于耐心的工具和技术。
35 We encourage achievements that require big time and big systems.
35 我们鼓励需要大时间和大系统的成就。
36 The problems of civilization require solutions at the scale of civilization.
36 文明的问题需要文明尺度的解决方案。
37 Civilization is multi-paced: Fast learns, slow remembers.
37 文明是多速的：快者学习，慢者记忆。
38 The pace of management must match the rate of change.
38 管理的节奏必须与变化的速率匹配。
39 We encourage governance to protect slow infrastructure to ensure freedom in the fast things.
39 我们鼓励治理保护缓慢基础设施，以确保快速事物中的自由。
40 The only successful ways of directing self-replicating generations are indirect ways, by the transmission of values.
40 引导自我复制世代的唯一成功方式是间接方式，即通过价值观的传递。
41 Thinking about the future is a way to think about the systems.
41 思考未来是一种思考系统的方式。
42 Focus not on the outcomes, but on the processes that produce outcomes.
42 不要关注结果，而要关注产生结果的过程。
43 In the long-term, success is increased mutualism.
43 在长期中，成功是增强的互利共生。
44 We promote new ways to cooperate.
44 我们促进新的合作方式。
45 Civilization has given us a new power: to choose who and what we are individually.
45 文明赋予了我们一种新权力：以个体身份选择我们是谁、我们是什么。
46 To optimize our humanity we have to optimize the source of our humanity: civilization.
46 为了优化我们的人性，我们必须优化我们人性的来源：文明。
47 We seek to optimize civilization.
47 我们寻求优化文明。
48 If we achieve a desirable society, we will have made the individual better, too.
48 如果我们实现一个可欲的社会，我们也会使个体变得更好。
49 If we achieve a desirable future, we will have made the present better, too.
49 如果我们实现一个可欲的未来，我们也会使现在变得更好。
50 In the long interval, it pays to be altruistic.
50 在长时间间隔中，利他是有回报的。
51 We want to make long-term thinking automatic and common instead of difficult and rare.
51 我们想让长期思考变得自动且常见，而不是困难且稀有。
52 Bigger things take bigger time.
52 更大的事情需要更大的时间。
53 An expanded sense of our time scale (the long now) is correlated to an expanded sense of place.
53 我们时间尺度感的扩展（漫长的当下）与地方感的扩展相关。
54 The long now needs the big here.
54 漫长的当下需要广阔的这里。
55 The most important things will take more than one lifetime to complete.
55 最重要的事情需要超过一生才能完成。
56 Let’s design a system so that 90% of the benefits are delivered after we are all dead.
56 让我们设计一个系统，使 90% 的收益在我们都死亡之后才交付。
57 Create better ways to reschedule the payout.
57 创造更好的方式来重新安排支付。
58 We are committed to representing the interests of the future to the present.
58 我们致力于向现在代表未来的利益。
59 The present needs no defenders. The citizens of the future are unborn, so we the living will be their proxy.
59 现在不需要捍卫者。未来的公民尚未出生，因此我们这些活着的人将成为他们的代理人。
60 We aim to be good ancestors.
60 我们的目标是成为好祖先。
61 To be a good ancestor means doing the things you wished your ancestors did. What do we wish our great-grandparents did?
61 成为好祖先意味着做那些你希望你的祖先做过的事情。我们希望我们的曾祖父母曾经做过什么呢？
62 We’d like to improve the ways of being accountable to posterity.
62 我们想改进对后代负责的方式。
63 Every idea about the future is a prediction.
63 每一个关于未来的想法都是一种预测。
64 Nearly all predictions are wrong. But some are useful.
64 几乎所有预测都是错的。但有些是有用的。
65 The future doesn’t need to be plausible; it only needs to be possible.
65 未来不需要看似可信；它只需要可能。
66 Our present estimates of the future are clouded by plausibility. We should practice seeing the outrageous, ridiculous, and improbable, because that is what today is compared to the past.
66 我们当前对未来的估计被貌似可信性所遮蔽。我们应该练习看见荒诞、可笑和不太可能的事物，因为与过去相比，今天正是那类事物。
67 This present moment used to be the unimaginable future.
67 这个当下曾经是难以想象的未来。
68 The future is purchased by the present.
68 未来是由现在购买的。
69 We have more obligation to the future than the past.
69 我们对未来的义务多于对过去的义务。
70 The tyranny of the present can only be offset by possible futures.
70 现在的暴政只能被可能的未来抵消。
71 The future is no more free of the past than the present is.
71 未来并不比现在更能摆脱过去。
72 Our optimism about the future lies not in how small we think our current problems are but how large we believe our capacities for improvement are.
72 我们对未来的乐观，不在于我们认为当前问题有多小，而在于我们相信自己的改进能力有多大。
73 Optimism is easier if you take the long view because most setbacks are offset by even small compounding gains.
73 如果你采取长期视角，乐观会更容易，因为大多数挫折都会被哪怕小幅的复利收益抵消。
74 A key advantage to taking the long view is that you will have few competitors there.
74 采取长远视角的一个关键优势是，在那里你几乎没有竞争对手。
75 The more important the system, the more it has been shaped by history, and the longer its past.
75 一个系统越重要，它就越被历史塑造，其过去也越漫长。
76 To understand the far future, we must understand the deep past.
76 要理解遥远的未来，我们必须理解深远的过去。
77 We seek to apply the lessons of the past to steer the future.
77 我们寻求运用过去的经验教训来引导未来。
78 We seek to overcome the asymmetries in time that bias the past.
78 我们寻求克服那些偏向过去的时间不对称。
79 Uncertainty of the future is penalized more than uncertainty of the past.
79 未来的不确定性比过去的不确定性受到更重的惩罚。
80 Possible pain in the future gets more of our attention than actual pain in the past.
80 未来可能的痛苦比过去实际的痛苦得到我们更多关注。
81 Every life has the inherent ability to affect the future. That is what being alive means.
81 每个生命都有影响未来的内在能力。这就是活着的意思。
82 Every change that ripples out into the far future begins in an instant.
82 每一个扩散至遥远未来的变化都始于一个瞬间。
83 Things that have never happened before happen all the time.
83 以前从未发生过的事情一直在发生。
84 We encourage wisdom: the ability to prospectively look back, to see today from the perspective of a distant tomorrow.
84 我们鼓励智慧：一种前瞻性地回望的能力，从一个遥远的明天来审视今天。
85 The real risk to civilization is not serious errors, but serious forgetting.
85 对文明的真正风险不是严重错误，而是严重遗忘。
86 A longer view allows you to see what things do best with a short fast life; not everything needs to be slow or continuous.
86 更长远的视角让你看到哪些事物最适合短暂而快速的生命；并非一切都需要缓慢或连续。
87 More than just long-term responsibility, we encourage long-term imagination.
87 不仅仅是长期责任，我们鼓励长期想象力。
88 We seek to widen our individual and collective attention spans from the previous few minutes and next few minutes (the short now) to the previous 10,000 years and next 10,000 years.
88 我们寻求把个人和集体的注意跨度从此前几分钟和接下来几分钟（短促的当下）扩展到此前 10,000 年和接下来 10,000 年。